AI-Driven Surrogate Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Active Power Cycling in Power Electronics Packages

Research output: Contribution to book/Conference proceedings/Anthology/ReportConference contributionContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

Thermo-mechanical fatigue of solder interconnections is one of the primary reliability concerns in power electronics packages subjected to active temperature cycling (aTC). Accurate prediction of accumulated plastic strain and its variability is essential for reliability assessment; however, physics-based finite element simulations are computationally expensive, limiting their use for large-scale uncertainty studies. This work presents an artificial intelligence-driven surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification framework to efficiently predict accumulated plastic strain across spatial locations in solder joints. A three-dimensional finite element model of an HPSOF8 power package was used to generate nodal response data for 200 uniformly distributed temperature cycling conditions defined by temperature amplitude, cycle timings and starting temperature. Temporal Convolutional Network surrogate models were trained to predict the time evolution of accumulated plastic strain at upper and lower solder interfaces, achieving high predictive accuracy with R2 values ranging from 0.917 to 0.996 across spatial groups. Polynomial Chaos Expansion was then applied to quantify the influence of temperature amplitude uncertainty, showing that outer interface regions exhibit between 15 and 18 percent higher relative variability compared to inner and center locations, particularly under specific operating regimes. The proposed hybrid finite element, artificial intelligence, and uncertainty quantification framework enables rapid and accurate probabilistic prediction of fatigue-relevant quantities, providing an efficient approach towards reliability assessment and supporting uncertainty-aware design of power electronics packages.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2026 IEEE 76th Electronic Components and Technology Conference, ECTC 2026
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Pages1036-1043
Number of pages8
ISBN (electronic)979-8-3315-6417-9
ISBN (print)979-8-3315-6418-6
Publication statusPublished - 2026
Peer-reviewedYes

Publication series

SeriesProceedings - Electronic Components and Technology Conference
ISSN0569-5503

Conference

Title76th IEEE Electronic Components and Technology Conference
Abbreviated titleECTC 2026
Conference number76
Duration26 - 29 May 2026
Website
LocationJW Marriott & The Ritz-Carlton Grande Lakes Resort
CityOrlando
CountryUnited States of America

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-0757-3325/work/219975356
ORCID /0000-0001-9720-0727/work/219975373

Keywords

Keywords

  • accumulated plastic strain, Active temperature cycling, machine learning, Polynomial Chaos Expansion, power electronics packaging, solder joint reliability, surrogate modeling, Temporal Convolutional Network, uncertainty quantification