Exploring the effects of perception errors and anticipation strategies on traffic accidents - A simulation study

Research output: Contribution to book/Conference proceedings/Anthology/ReportConference contributionContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Hans Van Lint - , Delft University of Technology (Author)
  • Simeon Calvert - , Delft University of Technology (Author)
  • Wouter Schakel - , Delft University of Technology (Author)
  • Meng Wang - , Delft University of Technology (Author)
  • Alexander Verbraeck - , Delft University of Technology (Author)

Abstract

It is remarkable that drivers (on average) can safely navigate through dense traffic at high speeds—conditions in which the time headways between vehicles are in the same order of magnitude as human reaction times. One explanation for this is the ability of drivers to anticipate on the traffic conditions in their surroundings. In this paper, we study, through simulation, the effects of reaction times, errors in perception and anticipation on the probability of accidents on freeways. To this end we extend an existing model for car following and lane changing with a perception and anticipation model inspired by Ensley’s three levels of situational awareness (perception, understanding and projection). By systematically varying driving behavior with different reaction times over a range of perception errors, and anticipation strategies, we compute efficiency effects (capacity and total time spent) and safety effects (the probability density of accidents happening as a function of these different contributing factors and errors). The results provide some evidence that safe driving is robust with respect to perception errors under simple anticipation strategies and small reaction times. When reaction times grow larger, more advanced anticipation strategies are needed to guarantee safe driving.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Human Factors in Simulation and Modeling - Proceedings of the AHFE 2017 International Conference on Human Factors in Simulation and Modeling, 2017
EditorsDaniel N. Cassenti
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages249-261
Number of pages13
ISBN (print)9783319605906
Publication statusPublished - 2018
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

Publication series

SeriesAdvances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
Volume591
ISSN2194-5357

Conference

Title2017 2nd International Conference on Human Factors and Simulation
Conference number2
Descriptionpart of 8th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2017)
Duration17 - 21 July 2017
LocationThe Westin Bonaventure Hotel
CityLos Angeles
CountryUnited States of America

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6555-5558/work/171064730

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

Keywords

  • Anticipation strategies, Awareness, Driving behavior, Perception errors, Traffic safety