Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Xiuwen Guo - , Ocean University of China (Author)
  • Yang Gao - , Ocean University of China, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP) (Author)
  • Shaoqing Zhang - , Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), Ocean University of China (Author)
  • Lixin Wu - , International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), Ocean University of China (Author)
  • Ping Chang - , International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), Texas A&M University (Author)
  • Wenju Cai - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, University of Bern (Author)
  • L. Ruby Leung - , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Author)
  • Justin Small - , International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), National Center for Atmospheric Research (Author)
  • Gokhan Danabasoglu - , International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), National Center for Atmospheric Research (Author)
  • Luanne Thompson - , University of Washington (Author)
  • Huiwang Gao - , Ocean University of China (Author)

Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)179-186
Number of pages8
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume12
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2022
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes