Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Xiuwen Guo - , Ocean University of China (Autor:in)
  • Yang Gao - , Ocean University of China, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP) (Autor:in)
  • Shaoqing Zhang - , Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), Ocean University of China (Autor:in)
  • Lixin Wu - , International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), Ocean University of China (Autor:in)
  • Ping Chang - , International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), Texas A&M University (Autor:in)
  • Wenju Cai - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Universität Bern (Autor:in)
  • L. Ruby Leung - , Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (Autor:in)
  • Justin Small - , International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), National Center for Atmospheric Research (Autor:in)
  • Gokhan Danabasoglu - , International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP), National Center for Atmospheric Research (Autor:in)
  • Luanne Thompson - , University of Washington (Autor:in)
  • Huiwang Gao - , Ocean University of China (Autor:in)

Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)179-186
Seitenumfang8
FachzeitschriftNature Climate Change
Jahrgang12
Ausgabenummer2
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Feb. 2022
Peer-Review-StatusJa
Extern publiziertJa