Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-Out on the German Coal Industry
Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review
Contributors
Abstract
We assess the value of stranded coal-fired power plants in Germany in the light of the critical decision to phase them out by 2038. In a Monte Carlo simulation, the scenarios under consideration (slow decommissioning at the end of the technical lifetime in 2061, the highly probable phase-out by 2038, and an accelerated phase-out by 2030) are additionally assigned distributions to display the uncertainty of future developments. The results show an overall stranded asset value of €2.6 billion given the phase-out by 2038 and an additional €11.6 billion if the phase-out is brought forward by 8 years. This study also describes the impacts of carbon pricing and the feed-in from renewable energy sources on the merit order and eventually the deterioration in economic conditions for hard coal and lignite power plants. Lastly, we discuss the immediate concerns for the share prices of the affected companies and help to close the research gap regarding stranded physical and financial assets.
Details
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 27-50 |
Number of pages | 24 |
Journal | The Energy Journal |
Volume | 43 |
Issue number | 5 |
Publication status | Published - Sept 2022 |
Peer-reviewed | Yes |
External IDs
ORCID | /0000-0003-4359-987X/work/142255148 |
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WOS | 000910860900002 |
Keywords
Sustainable Development Goals
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Keywords
- Coal Phase-Out, Energy Transition, Germany, Stranded Assets