Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-Out on the German Coal Industry

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

Abstract

We assess the value of stranded coal-fired power plants in Germany in the light of the critical decision to phase them out by 2038. In a Monte Carlo simulation, the scenarios under consideration (slow decommissioning at the end of the technical lifetime in 2061, the highly probable phase-out by 2038, and an accelerated phase-out by 2030) are additionally assigned distributions to display the uncertainty of future developments. The results show an overall stranded asset value of €2.6 billion given the phase-out by 2038 and an additional €11.6 billion if the phase-out is brought forward by 8 years. This study also describes the impacts of carbon pricing and the feed-in from renewable energy sources on the merit order and eventually the deterioration in economic conditions for hard coal and lignite power plants. Lastly, we discuss the immediate concerns for the share prices of the affected companies and help to close the research gap regarding stranded physical and financial assets.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)27-50
Seitenumfang24
FachzeitschriftThe Energy Journal
Jahrgang43
Ausgabenummer5
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Sept. 2022
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0003-4359-987X/work/142255148
WOS 000910860900002

Schlagworte

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Schlagwörter

  • Coal Phase-Out, Energy Transition, Germany, Stranded Assets