Statistical Surveillance of Volatility Forecasting Models

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Vasyl Golosnoy - , Kiel University (Author)
  • Iryna Okhrin - , Europe University Viadrina (Author)
  • Wolfgang Schmid - , Europe University Viadrina (Author)

Abstract

This paper elaborates sequential procedures for monitoring the validity of a volatility model. A state space representation describes dynamics of daily integrated volatility. The observation equation relates the integrated volatility to its measures such as the realized volatility or bipower variation. On-line control procedures, based on volatility forecasting errors, allow us to decide whether the chosen representation remains correctly specified. A signal indicates that the assumed volatility model may no longer be valid. The performance of our approach is analyzed within a Monte Carlo simulation study and illustrated in an empirical application for selected US stocks.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)513-543
Number of pages40
JournalJournal of financial econometrics
Volume10
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2012
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

Scopus 84863457267
ORCID /0000-0002-9732-9405/work/173987784

Keywords

Keywords

  • control charts, integrated volatility, jumps, realized volatility, state-space model