Statistical Surveillance of Volatility Forecasting Models
Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review
Contributors
Abstract
This paper elaborates sequential procedures for monitoring the validity of a volatility model. A state space representation describes dynamics of daily integrated volatility. The observation equation relates the integrated volatility to its measures such as the realized volatility or bipower variation. On-line control procedures, based on volatility forecasting errors, allow us to decide whether the chosen representation remains correctly specified. A signal indicates that the assumed volatility model may no longer be valid. The performance of our approach is analyzed within a Monte Carlo simulation study and illustrated in an empirical application for selected US stocks.
Details
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 513-543 |
Number of pages | 40 |
Journal | Journal of financial econometrics |
Volume | 10 |
Issue number | 3 |
Publication status | Published - 2012 |
Peer-reviewed | Yes |
Externally published | Yes |
External IDs
Scopus | 84863457267 |
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ORCID | /0000-0002-9732-9405/work/173987784 |
Keywords
Keywords
- control charts, integrated volatility, jumps, realized volatility, state-space model