Statistical Surveillance of Volatility Forecasting Models
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Forschungsartikel › Beigetragen › Begutachtung
Beitragende
Abstract
This paper elaborates sequential procedures for monitoring the validity of a volatility model. A state space representation describes dynamics of daily integrated volatility. The observation equation relates the integrated volatility to its measures such as the realized volatility or bipower variation. On-line control procedures, based on volatility forecasting errors, allow us to decide whether the chosen representation remains correctly specified. A signal indicates that the assumed volatility model may no longer be valid. The performance of our approach is analyzed within a Monte Carlo simulation study and illustrated in an empirical application for selected US stocks.
Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Seiten (von - bis) | 513-543 |
| Seitenumfang | 40 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Journal of financial econometrics |
| Jahrgang | 10 |
| Ausgabenummer | 3 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 2012 |
| Peer-Review-Status | Ja |
| Extern publiziert | Ja |
Externe IDs
| Scopus | 84863457267 |
|---|---|
| ORCID | /0000-0002-9732-9405/work/173987784 |
Schlagworte
Schlagwörter
- control charts, integrated volatility, jumps, realized volatility, state-space model