Statistical Surveillance of Volatility Forecasting Models

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Vasyl Golosnoy - , Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU) (Autor:in)
  • Iryna Okhrin - , Europa-Universität Viadrina (Autor:in)
  • Wolfgang Schmid - , Europa-Universität Viadrina (Autor:in)

Abstract

This paper elaborates sequential procedures for monitoring the validity of a volatility model. A state space representation describes dynamics of daily integrated volatility. The observation equation relates the integrated volatility to its measures such as the realized volatility or bipower variation. On-line control procedures, based on volatility forecasting errors, allow us to decide whether the chosen representation remains correctly specified. A signal indicates that the assumed volatility model may no longer be valid. The performance of our approach is analyzed within a Monte Carlo simulation study and illustrated in an empirical application for selected US stocks.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)513-543
Seitenumfang40
FachzeitschriftJournal of financial econometrics
Jahrgang10
Ausgabenummer3
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2012
Peer-Review-StatusJa
Extern publiziertJa

Externe IDs

Scopus 84863457267
ORCID /0000-0002-9732-9405/work/173987784

Schlagworte

Schlagwörter

  • control charts, integrated volatility, jumps, realized volatility, state-space model