Statistical Surveillance of the Mean Vector and the Covariance Matrix of Nonlinear Time Series
Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review
Contributors
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to jointly monitor the mean vector and the covariance matrix of multivariate nonlinear times series. The underlying target process is assumed to be a constant conditional correlation process Bollerslev (Rev Econ Stat 72:498–505, 1990) or a dynamic conditional correlation model Engle (J Bus Econ Stat 20:339–350, 2002). We introduce several EWMA and CUSUM control charts. These control schemes are based on univariate EWMA statistics, multivariate EWMA recursions, and different types of cumulative sums. The recursions are applied to local measures for means and covariances, e.g. the present observations and the conditional covariances. Further, they are applied to means and covariances of residuals. The control statistics are obtained by computing the Mahalanobis distance between the EWMA or CUSUM statistics and their expectations if no change occurs. Via Monte Carlo simulation the performance of the proposed charts is compared. Our empirical study illustrates an application of these control procedures to bivariate logarithmic returns of the European indices FTSE100 and DAX. In order to assess the performance of the introduced schemes we apply the average run length and the maximum conditional expected delay.
Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 225-255 |
| Number of pages | 31 |
| Journal | AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis |
| Volume | 98 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| Publication status | Published - 2014 |
| Peer-reviewed | Yes |
| Externally published | Yes |
External IDs
| Scopus | 84903888805 |
|---|---|
| ORCID | /0000-0002-9732-9405/work/173987782 |
Keywords
Subject groups, research areas, subject areas according to Destatis
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Keywords
- Statistical process Control, Multivariate CUSUM charts, Multivariate EWMA charts, Conditional correlation model