Statistical Surveillance of the Mean Vector and the Covariance Matrix of Nonlinear Time Series

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Robert Garthoff - , Europe University Viadrina (Author)
  • Iryna Okhrin - , Europe University Viadrina (Author)
  • Wolfgang Schmid - , Europe University Viadrina (Author)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to jointly monitor the mean vector and the covariance matrix of multivariate nonlinear times series. The underlying target process is assumed to be a constant conditional correlation process Bollerslev (Rev Econ Stat 72:498–505, 1990) or a dynamic conditional correlation model Engle (J Bus Econ Stat 20:339–350, 2002). We introduce several EWMA and CUSUM control charts. These control schemes are based on univariate EWMA statistics, multivariate EWMA recursions, and different types of cumulative sums. The recursions are applied to local measures for means and covariances, e.g. the present observations and the conditional covariances. Further, they are applied to means and covariances of residuals. The control statistics are obtained by computing the Mahalanobis distance between the EWMA or CUSUM statistics and their expectations if no change occurs. Via Monte Carlo simulation the performance of the proposed charts is compared. Our empirical study illustrates an application of these control procedures to bivariate logarithmic returns of the European indices FTSE100 and DAX. In order to assess the performance of the introduced schemes we apply the average run length and the maximum conditional expected delay.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)225-255
Number of pages31
JournalAStA Advances in Statistical Analysis
Volume98
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

Scopus 84903888805
ORCID /0000-0002-9732-9405/work/173987782

Keywords

Subject groups, research areas, subject areas according to Destatis

Keywords

  • Statistical process Control, Multivariate CUSUM charts, Multivariate EWMA charts, Conditional correlation model