Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates
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Contributors
Abstract
We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on the cross section of intraday exchange rate returns of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. The performance of the candidates in the debate is an exogenous shock to the election probability. We find that currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate, while no significant impact is detected for countries with bilateral US exports to GDP below 2 percent. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes, while the candidates' stance towards military and immigration play a minor role.
Details
Original language | English |
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Article number | 103134 |
Journal | Journal of international money and finance |
Volume | 147 |
Publication status | Published - Sept 2024 |
Peer-reviewed | Yes |
Keywords
Sustainable Development Goals
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Keywords
- Bilateral trade integration, Exchange rates, Protectionism, TV debates, US presidential elections