Protectionism, bilateral integration, and the cross section of exchange rate returns in US presidential debates

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

Abstract

We study the impact of US presidential election TV debates on the cross section of intraday exchange rate returns of 96 currencies from 1996 to 2016. The performance of the candidates in the debate is an exogenous shock to the election probability. We find that currencies of countries with high levels of bilateral foreign trade with the US depreciate if the election probability of the protectionist candidate increases during the debate, while no significant impact is detected for countries with bilateral US exports to GDP below 2 percent. Expectations about protectionist measures are the main transmission channel of debate outcomes, while the candidates' stance towards military and immigration play a minor role.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer103134
FachzeitschriftJournal of international money and finance
Jahrgang147
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Sept. 2024
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Schlagworte

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Schlagwörter

  • Bilateral trade integration, Exchange rates, Protectionism, TV debates, US presidential elections