Proposal and extensive test of a calibration protocol for crop phenology models

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Daniel Wallach - , University of Bonn (Author)
  • Taru Palosuo - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Author)
  • Peter Thorburn - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Author)
  • Henrike Mielenz - , Julius Kühn Institute - Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants (Author)
  • Samuel Buis - , INRAE CSGA (Author)
  • Zvi Hochman - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Author)
  • Emmanuelle Gourdain - (Author)
  • Fety Andrianasolo - (Author)
  • Benjamin Dumont - , University of Liege (Author)
  • Roberto Ferrise - , University of Florence (Author)
  • Thomas Gaiser - , University of Bonn (Author)
  • Cecile Garcia - (Author)
  • Sebastian Gayler - , University of Hohenheim (Author)
  • Matthew Harrison - , University of Tasmania (Author)
  • Santosh Hiremath - , Aalto University (Author)
  • Heidi Horan - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Author)
  • Gerrit Hoogenboom - , Florida State University (Author)
  • Per-Erik Jansson - , KTH Royal Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Qi Jing - , Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (Author)
  • Eric Justes - , Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (Author)
  • Kurt-Christian Kersebaum - , Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Czech Academy of Sciences, University of Göttingen (Author)
  • Marie Launay - , INRAE CSGA (Author)
  • Elisabet Lewan - , Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (Author)
  • Ke Liu - , University of Tasmania (Author)
  • Fasil Mequanint - , University of Hohenheim (Author)
  • Marco Moriondo - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR) (Author)
  • Claas Nendel - , Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Czech Academy of Sciences, University of Potsdam (Author)
  • Gloria Padovan - , University of Florence (Author)
  • Budong Qian - , Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (Author)
  • Niels Schuetze - , Chair of Hydrology (Author)
  • Diana-Maria Seserman - , Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (Author)
  • Vakhtang Shelia - , Florida State University (Author)
  • Amir Souissi - , Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (Author)
  • Xenia Specka - , Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (Author)
  • Amit Kumar Srivastava - , University of Bonn (Author)
  • Giacomo Trombi - , University of Florence (Author)
  • Tobias K. D. Weber - , University of Hohenheim, University of Kassel (Author)
  • Lutz Weihermueller - , Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres (Author)
  • Thomas Woehling - , Chair of Hydrology, Lincoln Agritech Ltd. (Author)
  • Sabine J. Seidel - , University of Bonn (Author)

Abstract

A major effect of environment on crops is through crop phenology, and therefore, the capacity to predict phenology for new environments is important. Mechanistic crop models are a major tool for such predictions, but calibration of crop phenology models is difficult and there is no consensus on the best approach. We propose an original, detailed approach for calibration of such models, which we refer to as a calibration protocol. The protocol covers all the steps in the calibration workflow, namely choice of default parameter values, choice of objective function, choice of parameters to estimate from the data, calculation of optimal parameter values, and diagnostics. The major innovation is in the choice of which parameters to estimate from the data, which combines expert knowledge and data-based model selection. First, almost additive parameters are identified and estimated. This should make bias (average difference between observed and simulated values) nearly zero. These are "obligatory" parameters, that will definitely be estimated. Then candidate parameters are identified, which are parameters likely to explain the remaining discrepancies between simulated and observed values. A candidate is only added to the list of parameters to estimate if it leads to a reduction in BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion), which is a model selection criterion. A second original aspect of the protocol is the specification of documentation for each stage of the protocol. The protocol was applied by 19 modeling teams to three data sets for wheat phenology. All teams first calibrated their model using their "usual" calibration approach, so it was possible to compare usual and protocol calibration. Evaluation of prediction error was based on data from sites and years not represented in the training data. Compared to usual calibration, calibration following the new protocol reduced the variability between modeling teams by 22% and reduced prediction error by 11%.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number46
Pages (from-to)1-14
Number of pages14
JournalAgronomy for Sustainable Development
Volume2023
Issue number43
Publication statusPublished - 13 Jul 2023
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

Scopus 85165277995
ORCID /0000-0003-2963-0965/work/155292011
ORCID /0000-0002-2376-528X/work/162347874

Keywords

Keywords

  • Crop model, Model ensemble, Prediction error, Protocol, Variability