Predicting years with extremely low gross primary production from daily weather data using Convolutional Neural Networks

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Aris Marcolongo - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Mykhailo Vladymyrov - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Sebastian Lienert - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Nadav Peleg - , University of Lausanne (Author)
  • Sigve Haug - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , University of Bern, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)

Abstract

Understanding the meteorological drivers of extreme impacts in social or environmental systems is important to better quantify current and project future climate risks. Impacts are typically an aggregated response to many different interacting drivers at various temporal scales, rendering such driver identification a challenging task. Machine learning-based approaches, such as deep neural networks, may be able to address this task but require large training datasets. Here, we explore the ability of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to predict years with extremely low gross primary production (GPP) from daily weather data in three different vegetation types. To circumvent data limitations in observations, we simulate 100,000 years of daily weather with a weather generator for three different geographical sites and subsequently simulate vegetation dynamics with a complex vegetation model. For each resulting vegetation distribution, we then train two different CNNs to classify daily weather data (temperature, precipitation, and radiation) into years with extremely low GPP and normal years. Overall, prediction accuracy is very good if the monthly or yearly GPP values are used as an intermediate training target (area under the precision-recall curve AUC 0.9). The best prediction accuracy is found in tropical forests, with temperate grasslands and boreal forests leading to comparable results. Prediction accuracy is strongly reduced when binary classification is used directly. Furthermore, using daily GPP during training does not improve the predictive power. We conclude that CNNs are able to predict extreme impacts from complex meteorological drivers if sufficient data are available.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2
JournalEnvironmental Data Science
Volume1
Publication statusPublished - 13 Apr 2022
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321872

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

Keywords

  • Carbon cycle, Convolutional Neural Networks, extreme events, extreme impacts