Predicting years with extremely low gross primary production from daily weather data using Convolutional Neural Networks

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Aris Marcolongo - , Universität Bern (Autor:in)
  • Mykhailo Vladymyrov - , Universität Bern (Autor:in)
  • Sebastian Lienert - , Universität Bern (Autor:in)
  • Nadav Peleg - , Université de Lausanne (Autor:in)
  • Sigve Haug - , Universität Bern (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Universität Bern, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)

Abstract

Understanding the meteorological drivers of extreme impacts in social or environmental systems is important to better quantify current and project future climate risks. Impacts are typically an aggregated response to many different interacting drivers at various temporal scales, rendering such driver identification a challenging task. Machine learning-based approaches, such as deep neural networks, may be able to address this task but require large training datasets. Here, we explore the ability of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to predict years with extremely low gross primary production (GPP) from daily weather data in three different vegetation types. To circumvent data limitations in observations, we simulate 100,000 years of daily weather with a weather generator for three different geographical sites and subsequently simulate vegetation dynamics with a complex vegetation model. For each resulting vegetation distribution, we then train two different CNNs to classify daily weather data (temperature, precipitation, and radiation) into years with extremely low GPP and normal years. Overall, prediction accuracy is very good if the monthly or yearly GPP values are used as an intermediate training target (area under the precision-recall curve AUC 0.9). The best prediction accuracy is found in tropical forests, with temperate grasslands and boreal forests leading to comparable results. Prediction accuracy is strongly reduced when binary classification is used directly. Furthermore, using daily GPP during training does not improve the predictive power. We conclude that CNNs are able to predict extreme impacts from complex meteorological drivers if sufficient data are available.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummere2
FachzeitschriftEnvironmental Data Science
Jahrgang1
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 13 Apr. 2022
Peer-Review-StatusJa
Extern publiziertJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321872

Schlagworte

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Schlagwörter

  • Carbon cycle, Convolutional Neural Networks, extreme events, extreme impacts