Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Y. T.Eunice Lo - , University of Bristol (Author)
  • Dann M. Mitchell - , University of Bristol (Author)
  • Jonathan R. Buzan - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Rochelle Schneider - , ESRIN - ESA Centre for Earth Observation, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Author)
  • Malcolm N. Mistry - , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Ca' Foscari University of Venice (Author)
  • Jan Kyselý - , Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Author)
  • Éric Lavigne - , University of Ottawa, Heatlh Canada (Author)
  • Susana Pereira da Silva - , Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge (Author)
  • Dominic Royé - , Climate Research Foundation (FIC), CIBER - Center for Biomedical Research Network (Author)
  • Aleš Urban - , Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Author)
  • Ben Armstrong - , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Author)
  • Antonio Gasparrini - , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Author)
  • Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera - , University of Bern (Author)

Abstract

Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5553-5568
Number of pages16
JournalInternational journal of climatology
Volume43
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2023
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Keywords

  • climate and health, dry heat, heat stress, heat-related mortality, humid heat