Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Y. T.Eunice Lo - , University of Bristol (Autor:in)
  • Dann M. Mitchell - , University of Bristol (Autor:in)
  • Jonathan R. Buzan - , Universität Bern (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Rochelle Schneider - , ESRIN - ESA Centre for Earth Observation, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Autor:in)
  • Malcolm N. Mistry - , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Ca' Foscari University of Venice (Autor:in)
  • Jan Kyselý - , Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Autor:in)
  • Éric Lavigne - , University of Ottawa, Heatlh Canada (Autor:in)
  • Susana Pereira da Silva - , Instituto Nacional de Saúde Doutor Ricardo Jorge (Autor:in)
  • Dominic Royé - , Climate Research Foundation (FIC), CIBER - Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red (Autor:in)
  • Aleš Urban - , Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Autor:in)
  • Ben Armstrong - , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Autor:in)
  • Antonio Gasparrini - , London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Autor:in)
  • Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera - , Universität Bern (Autor:in)

Abstract

Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)5553-5568
Seitenumfang16
FachzeitschriftInternational journal of climatology
Jahrgang43
Ausgabenummer12
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Okt. 2023
Peer-Review-StatusJa
Extern publiziertJa

Schlagworte

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Schlagwörter

  • climate and health, dry heat, heat stress, heat-related mortality, humid heat