Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Alberto Caldas-Alvarez - , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Markus Augenstein - , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Georgy Ayzel - , University of Potsdam (Author)
  • Klemens Barfus - , Chair of Meteorology (Author)
  • Ribu Cherian - , Leipzig University (Author)
  • Lisa Dillenardt - , University of Potsdam (Author)
  • Felix Fauer - , Free University of Berlin (Author)
  • Hendrik Feldmann - , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Maik Heistermann - , University of Potsdam (Author)
  • Alexia Karwat - , University of Hamburg (Author)
  • Frank Kaspar - , German Weather Service (Author)
  • Heidi Kreibich - , Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - German Research Centre for Geosciences (Author)
  • Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza - , Free University of Berlin, German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) (Author)
  • Edmund P. Meredith - , Free University of Berlin (Author)
  • Susanna Mohr - , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Deborah Niermann - , German Weather Service (Author)
  • Stephan Pfahl - , Free University of Berlin (Author)
  • Florian Ruff - , Free University of Berlin (Author)
  • Henning W. Rust - , Free University of Berlin (Author)
  • Lukas Schoppa - , University of Potsdam, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - German Research Centre for Geosciences (Author)
  • Thomas Schwitalla - , University of Hohenheim (Author)
  • Stella Steidl - , German Weather Service (Author)
  • Annegret H. Thieken - , University of Potsdam (Author)
  • Jordis S. Tradowsky - , German Weather Service, Bodeker Scientific (Author)
  • Volker Wulfmeyer - , University of Hohenheim (Author)
  • Johannes Quaas - , Leipzig University (Author)

Abstract

Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation processes, statistics and impacts across scales. To this end, a working group within the Germany-based project, ClimXtreme, has been established to carry out multidisciplinary analyses of high-impact events. In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event (HPE) affecting the Berlin metropolitan region (Germany), from the meteorological, impacts and climate perspectives, including climate change attribution. Our analysis showed that this event occurred under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough over western Europe and two shortwave surface lows over Britain and Poland (Rasmund and Rasmund II), inducing relevant low-level wind convergence along the German-Polish border. Over 11 000 convective cells were triggered, starting early morning 29 June, displacing northwards slowly under the influence of a weak tropospheric flow (10 m s-1 at 500 hPa). The quasi-stationary situation led to totals up to 196 mm d-1, making this event the 29 June most severe in the 1951-2021 climatology, ranked by means of a precipitation-based index. Regarding impacts, it incurred the largest insured losses in the period 2002 to 2017 (EUR 60 million) in the greater Berlin area. We provide further insights on flood attributes (inundation, depth, duration) based on a unique household-level survey data set. The major moisture source for this event was the Alpine-Slovenian region (63 % of identified sources) due to recycling of precipitation falling over that region 1 d earlier. Implementing three different generalised extreme value (GEV) models, we quantified the return periods for this case to be above 100 years for daily aggregated precipitation, and up to 100 and 10 years for 8 and 1 h aggregations, respectively. The conditional attribution demonstrated that warming since the pre-industrial era caused a small but significant increase of 4 % in total precipitation and 10 % for extreme intensities. The possibility that not just greenhouse-gas-induced warming, but also anthropogenic aerosols affected the intensity of precipitation is investigated through aerosol sensitivity experiments. Our multi-disciplinary approach allowed us to relate interconnected aspects of extreme precipitation. For instance, the link between the unique meteorological conditions of this case and its very large return periods, or the extent to which it is attributable to already-observed anthropogenic climate change.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3701-3724
Number of pages24
JournalNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Volume22
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 17 Nov 2022
Peer-reviewedYes