Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Alberto Caldas-Alvarez - , Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (Autor:in)
  • Markus Augenstein - , Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (Autor:in)
  • Georgy Ayzel - , Universität Potsdam (Autor:in)
  • Klemens Barfus - , Professur für Meteorologie (Autor:in)
  • Ribu Cherian - , Universität Leipzig (Autor:in)
  • Lisa Dillenardt - , Universität Potsdam (Autor:in)
  • Felix Fauer - , Freie Universität (FU) Berlin (Autor:in)
  • Hendrik Feldmann - , Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (Autor:in)
  • Maik Heistermann - , Universität Potsdam (Autor:in)
  • Alexia Karwat - , Universität Hamburg (Autor:in)
  • Frank Kaspar - , Deutscher Wetterdienst (Autor:in)
  • Heidi Kreibich - , Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam – Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (Autor:in)
  • Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza - , Freie Universität (FU) Berlin, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum GmBH (DKRZ) (Autor:in)
  • Edmund P. Meredith - , Freie Universität (FU) Berlin (Autor:in)
  • Susanna Mohr - , Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (Autor:in)
  • Deborah Niermann - , Deutscher Wetterdienst (Autor:in)
  • Stephan Pfahl - , Freie Universität (FU) Berlin (Autor:in)
  • Florian Ruff - , Freie Universität (FU) Berlin (Autor:in)
  • Henning W. Rust - , Freie Universität (FU) Berlin (Autor:in)
  • Lukas Schoppa - , Universität Potsdam, Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam – Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (Autor:in)
  • Thomas Schwitalla - , Universität Hohenheim (Autor:in)
  • Stella Steidl - , Deutscher Wetterdienst (Autor:in)
  • Annegret H. Thieken - , Universität Potsdam (Autor:in)
  • Jordis S. Tradowsky - , Deutscher Wetterdienst, Bodeker Scientific (Autor:in)
  • Volker Wulfmeyer - , Universität Hohenheim (Autor:in)
  • Johannes Quaas - , Universität Leipzig (Autor:in)

Abstract

Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation processes, statistics and impacts across scales. To this end, a working group within the Germany-based project, ClimXtreme, has been established to carry out multidisciplinary analyses of high-impact events. In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event (HPE) affecting the Berlin metropolitan region (Germany), from the meteorological, impacts and climate perspectives, including climate change attribution. Our analysis showed that this event occurred under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough over western Europe and two shortwave surface lows over Britain and Poland (Rasmund and Rasmund II), inducing relevant low-level wind convergence along the German-Polish border. Over 11 000 convective cells were triggered, starting early morning 29 June, displacing northwards slowly under the influence of a weak tropospheric flow (10 m s-1 at 500 hPa). The quasi-stationary situation led to totals up to 196 mm d-1, making this event the 29 June most severe in the 1951-2021 climatology, ranked by means of a precipitation-based index. Regarding impacts, it incurred the largest insured losses in the period 2002 to 2017 (EUR 60 million) in the greater Berlin area. We provide further insights on flood attributes (inundation, depth, duration) based on a unique household-level survey data set. The major moisture source for this event was the Alpine-Slovenian region (63 % of identified sources) due to recycling of precipitation falling over that region 1 d earlier. Implementing three different generalised extreme value (GEV) models, we quantified the return periods for this case to be above 100 years for daily aggregated precipitation, and up to 100 and 10 years for 8 and 1 h aggregations, respectively. The conditional attribution demonstrated that warming since the pre-industrial era caused a small but significant increase of 4 % in total precipitation and 10 % for extreme intensities. The possibility that not just greenhouse-gas-induced warming, but also anthropogenic aerosols affected the intensity of precipitation is investigated through aerosol sensitivity experiments. Our multi-disciplinary approach allowed us to relate interconnected aspects of extreme precipitation. For instance, the link between the unique meteorological conditions of this case and its very large return periods, or the extent to which it is attributable to already-observed anthropogenic climate change.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)3701-3724
Seitenumfang24
FachzeitschriftNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Jahrgang22
Ausgabenummer11
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 17 Nov. 2022
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Schlagworte