Loss of competitive strength in European conifer species under climate change

Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review

Contributors

  • Marc Grünig - , Technical University of Munich, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, University of Basel (Author)
  • Werner Rammer - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • Martin Baumann - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • Katharina Albrich - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Author)
  • Frédéric André - , Université catholique de Louvain (Author)
  • Andrey L.D. Augustynczik - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Friedrich J. Bohn - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing Berlin (Author)
  • Meike Bouwman - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Harald Bugmann - , ETH Zurich (Author)
  • Alessio Collalti - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) (Author)
  • Irina Cristal - , University of Girona (Author)
  • Daniela Dalmonech - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) (Author)
  • Miquel De Caceres - , CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (Author)
  • Francois De Coligny - , Botany and Modelling of Plant Architecture and Vegetation (Author)
  • Laura Dobor - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Author)
  • Christina Dollinger - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • David I. Forrester - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Author)
  • Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo - , Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Author)
  • José Ramón González-Olabarria - , Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Author)
  • Ulrike Hiltner - , ETH Zurich (Author)
  • Tomáš Hlásny - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Author)
  • Juha Honkaniemi - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Author)
  • Nica Huber - , ETH Zurich, Swiss Ornithological Institute (Author)
  • Andreas Huth - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Mathieu Jonard - , Université catholique de Louvain (Author)
  • Anna Maria Jönsson - , Lund University (Author)
  • Fredrik Lagergren - , Lund University (Author)
  • Marco Mina - , EURAC Research (Author)
  • Frits Mohren - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Christine Moos - , Bern University of Applied Sciences (Author)
  • Xavier Morin - , University of Montpellier (Author)
  • Bart Muys - , KU Leuven (Author)
  • Mats Nieberg - , Chair of Forest Growth and Dendrosciences, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, European Forest Institute (Author)
  • Mikko Peltoniemi - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Author)
  • Christopher P.O. Reyer - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Ilié Storms - , KU Leuven (Author)
  • Dominik Thom - , Chair of Silviculture (Author)
  • Maude Toïgo - , Université de Bordeaux (Author)
  • Rupert Seidl - , Technical University of Munich, Berchtesgaden National Park (Author)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter species assemblages by affecting the outcome of competition between species. Investigating processes of competition remains challenging in tree communities, as they unfold over extensive spatio-temporal scales. Here, we used a deep learning-based meta-model trained on 135 million simulated tree responses to climate across Europe to investigate changes in the competitiveness of nine major tree species under future climate. We harnessed projections from local process models to train a Deep Neural Network of forest state transitions to investigate climate-induced changes in competition at continental scale. We found decreasing competitive strength for evergreen conifers across their distribution, while deciduous broadleaved species increased in competitiveness. Most investigated species lost competitive strength at their warm range edges. Consequently, up to 25% of Europe’s forests could experience a change in the dominant tree species until the end of the 21st century, suggesting a profound climate-induced reassembly of Europe’s forests.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number401
JournalCommunications Earth and Environment
Volume7
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2026
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-8091-6075/work/225495775

Keywords