Loss of competitive strength in European conifer species under climate change

Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Forschungsartikel › Beigetragen › Begutachtung

Beitragende

  • Marc Grünig - , Technische Universität München, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Universität Basel (Autor:in)
  • Werner Rammer - , Technische Universität München (Autor:in)
  • Martin Baumann - , Technische Universität München (Autor:in)
  • Katharina Albrich - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Autor:in)
  • Frédéric André - , Université catholique de Louvain (Autor:in)
  • Andrey L.D. Augustynczik - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Autor:in)
  • Friedrich J. Bohn - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM) (Autor:in)
  • Meike Bouwman - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Autor:in)
  • Harald Bugmann - , ETH Zürich (Autor:in)
  • Alessio Collalti - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) (Autor:in)
  • Irina Cristal - , University of Girona (Autor:in)
  • Daniela Dalmonech - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) (Autor:in)
  • Miquel De Caceres - , CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (Autor:in)
  • Francois De Coligny - , BotAnique et Modélisation de l’Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (Autor:in)
  • Laura Dobor - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Autor:in)
  • Christina Dollinger - , Technische Universität München (Autor:in)
  • David I. Forrester - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Autor:in)
  • Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo - , Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Autor:in)
  • José Ramón González-Olabarria - , Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Autor:in)
  • Ulrike Hiltner - , ETH Zürich (Autor:in)
  • Tomáš Hlásny - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Autor:in)
  • Juha Honkaniemi - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Autor:in)
  • Nica Huber - , ETH Zürich, Swiss Ornithological Institute (Autor:in)
  • Andreas Huth - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Mathieu Jonard - , Université catholique de Louvain (Autor:in)
  • Anna Maria Jönsson - , Lund University (Autor:in)
  • Fredrik Lagergren - , Lund University (Autor:in)
  • Marco Mina - , EURAC Research (Autor:in)
  • Frits Mohren - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Autor:in)
  • Christine Moos - , Berner Fachhochschule (Autor:in)
  • Xavier Morin - , Université de Montpellier (Autor:in)
  • Bart Muys - , KU Leuven (Autor:in)
  • Mats Nieberg - , Professur für Waldwachstum und Dendrowissenschaften, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, European Forest Institute (Autor:in)
  • Mikko Peltoniemi - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Autor:in)
  • Christopher P.O. Reyer - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Autor:in)
  • Ilié Storms - , KU Leuven (Autor:in)
  • Dominik Thom - , Professur für Waldbau (Autor:in)
  • Maude Toïgo - , Université de Bordeaux (Autor:in)
  • Rupert Seidl - , Technische Universität München, Nationalpark Berchtesgaden (Autor:in)

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter species assemblages by affecting the outcome of competition between species. Investigating processes of competition remains challenging in tree communities, as they unfold over extensive spatio-temporal scales. Here, we used a deep learning-based meta-model trained on 135 million simulated tree responses to climate across Europe to investigate changes in the competitiveness of nine major tree species under future climate. We harnessed projections from local process models to train a Deep Neural Network of forest state transitions to investigate climate-induced changes in competition at continental scale. We found decreasing competitive strength for evergreen conifers across their distribution, while deciduous broadleaved species increased in competitiveness. Most investigated species lost competitive strength at their warm range edges. Consequently, up to 25% of Europe’s forests could experience a change in the dominant tree species until the end of the 21st century, suggesting a profound climate-induced reassembly of Europe’s forests.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer401
FachzeitschriftCommunications Earth and Environment
Jahrgang7
Ausgabenummer1
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Dez. 2026
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-8091-6075/work/225495775

Schlagworte