Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Delei Li - , CAS - Institute of Oceanology, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Chair of Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, TUD Dresden University of Technology (Author)
  • Yang Chen - , Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Author)
  • Baoshu Yin - , CAS - Institute of Oceanology, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Author)
  • Jianlong Feng - , Tianjin University of Science & Technology (Author)
  • Mandy Freund - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Author)
  • Jifeng Qi - , CAS - Institute of Oceanology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Author)
  • Yuchao Zhu - , CAS - Institute of Oceanology (Author)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)

Abstract

Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) can severely impact natural and socioeconomic systems. However, our understanding of CWPE future changes, drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, by analyzing the event both on oceans and landmasses via state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we reveal a poleward shift of CWPE occurrences by the late 21st century, with notable increases at latitudes exceeding 50° in both hemispheres and decreases in the subtropics around 25°. CWPE intensification occurs across approximately 90% of global landmasses, and is most pronounced under a high-emission scenario. Most changes in CWPE frequency and intensity (about 70% and 80%, respectively) stem from changes in precipitation extremes. We further identify large uncertainties in CWPE changes, which can be understood at the regional level by considering climate model differences in trends of CWPE drivers. These results provide insights into understanding CWPE changes under a warmer climate, aiding robust regional adaptation strategy development.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2024GL110135
JournalGeophysical research letters
Volume51
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 16 Jun 2024
Peer-reviewedYes

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals