Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Delei Li - , CAS - Institute of Oceanology, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Professur Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences (gB/UFZ), Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Technische Universität Dresden (Autor:in)
  • Yang Chen - , Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Autor:in)
  • Baoshu Yin - , CAS - Institute of Oceanology, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Autor:in)
  • Jianlong Feng - , Tianjin University of Science & Technology (Autor:in)
  • Mandy Freund - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Autor:in)
  • Jifeng Qi - , CAS - Institute of Oceanology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Autor:in)
  • Yuchao Zhu - , CAS - Institute of Oceanology (Autor:in)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)

Abstract

Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs) can severely impact natural and socioeconomic systems. However, our understanding of CWPE future changes, drivers, and uncertainties under a warmer climate is limited. Here, by analyzing the event both on oceans and landmasses via state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we reveal a poleward shift of CWPE occurrences by the late 21st century, with notable increases at latitudes exceeding 50° in both hemispheres and decreases in the subtropics around 25°. CWPE intensification occurs across approximately 90% of global landmasses, and is most pronounced under a high-emission scenario. Most changes in CWPE frequency and intensity (about 70% and 80%, respectively) stem from changes in precipitation extremes. We further identify large uncertainties in CWPE changes, which can be understood at the regional level by considering climate model differences in trends of CWPE drivers. These results provide insights into understanding CWPE changes under a warmer climate, aiding robust regional adaptation strategy development.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummere2024GL110135
FachzeitschriftGeophysical research letters
Jahrgang51
Ausgabenummer11
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 16 Juni 2024
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Schlagworte

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