Input database related uncertainty of Biome-BGCMuSo agro-environmental model outputs

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Nándor Fodor - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Author)
  • László Pásztor - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Author)
  • Brigitta Szabó - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Author)
  • Annamária Laborczi - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Author)
  • Klára Pokovai - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Author)
  • Dóra Hidy - , Eotvos Lorand University (Author)
  • Roland Hollós - , Eotvos Lorand University (Author)
  • Erzsébet Kristóf - , Eotvos Lorand University (Author)
  • Anna Kis - , Eotvos Lorand University (Author)
  • Laura Dobor - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Author)
  • Anikó Kern - , Eotvos Lorand University (Author)
  • Thomas Grünwald - , Chair of Meteorology (Author)
  • Zoltán Barcza - , Eotvos Lorand University, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Author)

Abstract

Gridded model assessments require at least one climatic and one soil database for carrying out the simulations. There are several parallel soil and climate database development projects that provide sufficient, albeit considerably different, observation based input data for crop model based impact studies. The input database related uncertainty of the Biome-BGCMuSo agro-environmental model outputs was investigated using three and four different gridded climatic and soil databases, respectively covering an area of nearly 100.000 km2 with 1104 grid cells. Spatial, temporal, climate and soil database selection related variances were calculated and compared for four model outputs obtained from 30-year-long simulations. The choice of the input database introduced model output variability that was comparable to the variability the year-to-year change of the weather or the spatial heterogeneity of the soil causes. Input database selection could be a decisive factor in carbon sequestration related studies as the soil carbon stock change estimates may either suggest that the simulated ecosystem is a carbon sink or to the contrary a carbon source on the long run. Careful evaluation of the input database quality seems to be an inevitable and highly relevant step towards more realistic plant production and carbon balance simulations.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1582-1601
Number of pages20
JournalInternational Journal of Digital Earth
Volume14
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

Scopus 85111376957
ORCID /0000-0003-2263-0073/work/163765965

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

Keywords

  • climatic parameters, gridded data, Input data, soil parameters, uncertainty propagation