Input database related uncertainty of Biome-BGCMuSo agro-environmental model outputs

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Nándor Fodor - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Autor:in)
  • László Pásztor - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Autor:in)
  • Brigitta Szabó - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Autor:in)
  • Annamária Laborczi - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Autor:in)
  • Klára Pokovai - , Centre for Agricultural Research (Autor:in)
  • Dóra Hidy - , University Eötvös Loránd (Autor:in)
  • Roland Hollós - , University Eötvös Loránd (Autor:in)
  • Erzsébet Kristóf - , University Eötvös Loránd (Autor:in)
  • Anna Kis - , University Eötvös Loránd (Autor:in)
  • Laura Dobor - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Autor:in)
  • Anikó Kern - , University Eötvös Loránd (Autor:in)
  • Thomas Grünwald - , Professur für Meteorologie (Autor:in)
  • Zoltán Barcza - , University Eötvös Loránd, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Autor:in)

Abstract

Gridded model assessments require at least one climatic and one soil database for carrying out the simulations. There are several parallel soil and climate database development projects that provide sufficient, albeit considerably different, observation based input data for crop model based impact studies. The input database related uncertainty of the Biome-BGCMuSo agro-environmental model outputs was investigated using three and four different gridded climatic and soil databases, respectively covering an area of nearly 100.000 km2 with 1104 grid cells. Spatial, temporal, climate and soil database selection related variances were calculated and compared for four model outputs obtained from 30-year-long simulations. The choice of the input database introduced model output variability that was comparable to the variability the year-to-year change of the weather or the spatial heterogeneity of the soil causes. Input database selection could be a decisive factor in carbon sequestration related studies as the soil carbon stock change estimates may either suggest that the simulated ecosystem is a carbon sink or to the contrary a carbon source on the long run. Careful evaluation of the input database quality seems to be an inevitable and highly relevant step towards more realistic plant production and carbon balance simulations.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seiten (von - bis)1582-1601
Seitenumfang20
FachzeitschriftInternational Journal of Digital Earth
Jahrgang14
Ausgabenummer11
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2021
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

Scopus 85111376957
ORCID /0000-0003-2263-0073/work/163765965

Schlagworte

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Schlagwörter

  • climatic parameters, gridded data, Input data, soil parameters, uncertainty propagation