Event-Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to journalComment/DebateContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Jana Sillmann - , Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) (Author)
  • Theodore G. Shepherd - , University of Reading (Author)
  • Bart van den Hurk - , Deltares (Author)
  • Wilco Hazeleger - , Utrecht University (Author)
  • Olivia Martius - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Julia Slingo - , University of Bristol (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , University of Bern, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)

Abstract

The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model-based probabilistic climate change projections. Event-based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress-testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event-based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2020EF001783
JournalEarth's Future
Volume9
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2021
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321808

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

Keywords

  • climate change, decision-making, high-impact events, low likelihood, risk, storylines