Event-Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk
Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/Debate › Contributed › peer-review
Contributors
Abstract
The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model-based probabilistic climate change projections. Event-based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress-testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event-based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.
Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e2020EF001783 |
| Journal | Earth's Future |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| Publication status | Published - Feb 2021 |
| Peer-reviewed | Yes |
| Externally published | Yes |
External IDs
| ORCID | /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321808 |
|---|
Keywords
Sustainable Development Goals
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Keywords
- climate change, decision-making, high-impact events, low likelihood, risk, storylines