Event-Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftKommentar (Comment) / Leserbriefe ohne eigene DatenBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Jana Sillmann - , Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) (Autor:in)
  • Theodore G. Shepherd - , University of Reading (Autor:in)
  • Bart van den Hurk - , Deltares (Autor:in)
  • Wilco Hazeleger - , Utrecht University (Autor:in)
  • Olivia Martius - , Universität Bern (Autor:in)
  • Julia Slingo - , University of Bristol (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Universität Bern, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)

Abstract

The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model-based probabilistic climate change projections. Event-based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress-testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event-based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummere2020EF001783
FachzeitschriftEarth's Future
Jahrgang9
Ausgabenummer2
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Feb. 2021
Peer-Review-StatusJa
Extern publiziertJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321808

Schlagworte

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

Schlagwörter

  • climate change, decision-making, high-impact events, low likelihood, risk, storylines