Event-Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Kommentar (Comment) / Leserbriefe ohne eigene Daten › Beigetragen › Begutachtung
Beitragende
Abstract
The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model-based probabilistic climate change projections. Event-based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress-testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event-based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.
Details
| Originalsprache | Englisch |
|---|---|
| Aufsatznummer | e2020EF001783 |
| Fachzeitschrift | Earth's Future |
| Jahrgang | 9 |
| Ausgabenummer | 2 |
| Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - Feb. 2021 |
| Peer-Review-Status | Ja |
| Extern publiziert | Ja |
Externe IDs
| ORCID | /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321808 |
|---|
Schlagworte
Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung
ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete
Schlagwörter
- climate change, decision-making, high-impact events, low likelihood, risk, storylines