European compound flood-heat-flood events associated with Omega patterns cannot be easily reproduced by a fully coupled model

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Yixuan Guo - , ETH Zurich, Peking University (Author)
  • Urs Beyerle - , ETH Zurich (Author)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Chair of Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Laura Suarez-Gutierrez - , ETH Zurich, French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) (Author)
  • Magdalena Mittermeier - , Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (Author)
  • Zuntao Fu - , Peking University (Author)
  • Erich Fischer - , ETH Zurich (Author)

Abstract

In September 2023, a spatially compounding event affected Europe, with an intense heatwave over northern France and nearly simultaneous extreme floods over the Iberian Peninsula and Greece. These extremes were accompanied by a low-high-low pressure system known as Omega pattern. However, the capability of climate models to reproduce such complex extremes and related atmospheric circulations is still unclear. By introducing a novel index, here we show that the 2023 event was not unique yet most extreme in recent decades. Using ensemble boosting, the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model 2 can reproduce such co-occurring extremes with remarkably similar configurations of the large-scale flow and even higher heatwave/rainfall than observed. This suggests that similar compounding events with even stronger intensity could, in principle, occur. However, such spatially compounding events are too rare in the model relative to reanalysis, suggesting that the model may underestimate their future occurrence in a warming climate.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number491
JournalCommunications Earth & Environment
Volume6
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2025
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321852

Keywords