European compound flood-heat-flood events associated with Omega patterns cannot be easily reproduced by a fully coupled model

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftForschungsartikelBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Yixuan Guo - , ETH Zürich, Peking University (Autor:in)
  • Urs Beyerle - , ETH Zürich (Autor:in)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Professur Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences (gB/UFZ), Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Laura Suarez-Gutierrez - , ETH Zürich, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) (Autor:in)
  • Magdalena Mittermeier - , Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU) (Autor:in)
  • Zuntao Fu - , Peking University (Autor:in)
  • Erich Fischer - , ETH Zürich (Autor:in)

Abstract

In September 2023, a spatially compounding event affected Europe, with an intense heatwave over northern France and nearly simultaneous extreme floods over the Iberian Peninsula and Greece. These extremes were accompanied by a low-high-low pressure system known as Omega pattern. However, the capability of climate models to reproduce such complex extremes and related atmospheric circulations is still unclear. By introducing a novel index, here we show that the 2023 event was not unique yet most extreme in recent decades. Using ensemble boosting, the fully-coupled Community Earth System Model 2 can reproduce such co-occurring extremes with remarkably similar configurations of the large-scale flow and even higher heatwave/rainfall than observed. This suggests that similar compounding events with even stronger intensity could, in principle, occur. However, such spatially compounding events are too rare in the model relative to reanalysis, suggesting that the model may underestimate their future occurrence in a warming climate.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer491
FachzeitschriftCommunications Earth and Environment
Jahrgang6
Ausgabenummer1
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Dez. 2025
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321852

Schlagworte