Elicit and Weigh: A Voting-Based Approach to Optimal Weights in Imprecise Linear Pooling

Research output: Contribution to book/Conference proceedings/Anthology/ReportConference contributionContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

Probabilistic opinion pooling aims to aggregate the probabilistic beliefs of multiple agents to reach a consensus. When dealing with high uncertainty contexts, agents’ beliefs are often represented by imprecise probabilities, i.e. intervals of probability values. The most commonly used aggregation method for imprecise opinion pooling is linear pooling, which takes a weighted average of the input opinions. However, determining an optimal weight distribution for pooling is a complex challenge. In this work, we propose a novel elicitation method inspired by epistemic voting that provides probabilistic guarantees for agents to hold a correct belief. Furthermore, we show how to derive well-performing pooling weights from the elicited beliefs using existing results for the voting rule on which our elicitation method is based. Finally, we carry out parametric simulations that illustrate the whole process of elicitation and weighting and that show an increase in the quality of the aggregated opinions.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationSymbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty
EditorsKai Sauerwald, Matthias Thimm
PublisherSpringer
Pages253–266
Number of pages14
ISBN (electronic)978-3-032-05134-9
ISBN (print)978-3-032-05133-2
Publication statusPublished - 2025
Peer-reviewedYes

Publication series

SeriesLecture Notes in Computer Science
Volume16099
ISSN0302-9743
SeriesLecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (LNAI)
ISSN0302-9743

Keywords

Keywords

  • Epistemic Voting, Imprecise Probabilities, Opinion Pooling