Elicit and Weigh: A Voting-Based Approach to Optimal Weights in Imprecise Linear Pooling

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Konferenzbericht/Sammelband/GutachtenBeitrag in KonferenzbandBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

Abstract

Probabilistic opinion pooling aims to aggregate the probabilistic beliefs of multiple agents to reach a consensus. When dealing with high uncertainty contexts, agents’ beliefs are often represented by imprecise probabilities, i.e. intervals of probability values. The most commonly used aggregation method for imprecise opinion pooling is linear pooling, which takes a weighted average of the input opinions. However, determining an optimal weight distribution for pooling is a complex challenge. In this work, we propose a novel elicitation method inspired by epistemic voting that provides probabilistic guarantees for agents to hold a correct belief. Furthermore, we show how to derive well-performing pooling weights from the elicited beliefs using existing results for the voting rule on which our elicitation method is based. Finally, we carry out parametric simulations that illustrate the whole process of elicitation and weighting and that show an increase in the quality of the aggregated opinions.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
TitelSymbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty
Redakteure/-innenKai Sauerwald, Matthias Thimm
Herausgeber (Verlag)Springer
Seiten253–266
Seitenumfang14
ISBN (elektronisch)978-3-032-05134-9
ISBN (Print)978-3-032-05133-2
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2025
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Publikationsreihe

ReiheLecture Notes in Computer Science
Band16099
ISSN0302-9743
ReiheLecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence (LNAI)
ISSN0302-9743

Schlagworte

Schlagwörter

  • Epistemic Voting, Imprecise Probabilities, Opinion Pooling