Dual modeling approach reveals: Need for assisted migration to mitigate loss of forest productivity in Europe

Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review

Contributors

  • Anna Wöhlbrandt - , Chair of Silviculture, State Forest of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Author)
  • Anabel Onay - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • Ute Bachmann-Gigl - , Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (Author)
  • Wolfgang Falk - , Bavarian State Institute of Forestry (Author)
  • Christian Temperli - , Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (Author)
  • Samuel Aspalter - , Austrian Research Centre for Forests Innsbruck (Author)
  • Debojyoti Chakraborty - , Austrian Research Centre for Forests Innsbruck (Author)
  • Silvio Schüler - , Austrian Research Centre for Forests Innsbruck (Author)
  • Johannes Breidenbach - , Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (Author)
  • Jonas Fridman - , Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (Author)
  • Miriam Isaac-Renton - , Natural Resources Canada (Author)
  • Vladimír Šebeň - , National Forest Centre (Author)
  • Mitja Skudnik - , University of Ljubljana, Slovenian Forestry Institute (Author)
  • Tzvetan Zlatanov - , Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (Author)
  • Dominik Thom - , Chair of Silviculture (Author)
  • Eric A. Thurm - , State Forest of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Author)

Abstract

Tree species selection is a critical forest management decision, raising fundamental questions: which species will survive and thrive under future climates, where, and to what extent? To address these questions, we applied a dual-model approach that combines 23 site index models with species distribution models. Drawing on a pan-European dataset of six million individual trees, the models project top height (site index) and climatic suitability (species distribution) for a reference period (1981–2010) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. By integrating site index predictions with low-risk species distribution classifications, we restricted growth projections to climatically suitable ranges derived from Species distribution models (SDMs). Our analysis examined four key aspects: (1) overall changes in forest productivity, (2) regional gains and losses for each species across five major European regions, (3) the most productive species by region, and (4) species with the greatest productivity gains (“winners”). Results reveal contrasting trends: productivity is projected to increase in northern Europe but decline in southern and central regions. Beneficiary species include Douglas-fir, Norway spruce, and European larch in the north, and downy oak and black locust in the south. These findings point to potential management-relevant patterns, suggesting that non-native species may become increasingly suitable in northern regions, while southern forests may require a broader portfolio of adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with projected productivity declines.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number129142
JournalJournal of environmental management
Volume404
Publication statusPublished - 15 Apr 2026
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

PubMed 41861550
ORCID /0000-0001-8091-6075/work/225495774

Keywords

Keywords

  • assisted migration, climate-adapted management, Europe, forest productivity, modelling, tree species selection