Dual modeling approach reveals: Need for assisted migration to mitigate loss of forest productivity in Europe

Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Forschungsartikel › Beigetragen › Begutachtung

Beitragende

  • Anna Wöhlbrandt - , Professur für Waldbau, Landesforst Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Autor:in)
  • Anabel Onay - , Technische Universität München (Autor:in)
  • Ute Bachmann-Gigl - , Bayerische Landesanstalt für Wald und Forstwirtschaft (Autor:in)
  • Wolfgang Falk - , Bayerische Landesanstalt für Wald und Forstwirtschaft (Autor:in)
  • Christian Temperli - , Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt für Wald, Schnee und Landschaft (Autor:in)
  • Samuel Aspalter - , Austrian Research Centre for Forests Innsbruck (Autor:in)
  • Debojyoti Chakraborty - , Austrian Research Centre for Forests Innsbruck (Autor:in)
  • Silvio Schüler - , Austrian Research Centre for Forests Innsbruck (Autor:in)
  • Johannes Breidenbach - , Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (Autor:in)
  • Jonas Fridman - , Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet (Autor:in)
  • Miriam Isaac-Renton - , Natural Resources Canada (Autor:in)
  • Vladimír Šebeň - , National Forest Centre (Autor:in)
  • Mitja Skudnik - , University of Ljubljana, Slovenian Forestry Institute (Autor:in)
  • Tzvetan Zlatanov - , Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (Autor:in)
  • Dominik Thom - , Professur für Waldbau (Autor:in)
  • Eric A. Thurm - , Landesforst Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Autor:in)

Abstract

Tree species selection is a critical forest management decision, raising fundamental questions: which species will survive and thrive under future climates, where, and to what extent? To address these questions, we applied a dual-model approach that combines 23 site index models with species distribution models. Drawing on a pan-European dataset of six million individual trees, the models project top height (site index) and climatic suitability (species distribution) for a reference period (1981–2010) and two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. By integrating site index predictions with low-risk species distribution classifications, we restricted growth projections to climatically suitable ranges derived from Species distribution models (SDMs). Our analysis examined four key aspects: (1) overall changes in forest productivity, (2) regional gains and losses for each species across five major European regions, (3) the most productive species by region, and (4) species with the greatest productivity gains (“winners”). Results reveal contrasting trends: productivity is projected to increase in northern Europe but decline in southern and central regions. Beneficiary species include Douglas-fir, Norway spruce, and European larch in the north, and downy oak and black locust in the south. These findings point to potential management-relevant patterns, suggesting that non-native species may become increasingly suitable in northern regions, while southern forests may require a broader portfolio of adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with projected productivity declines.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer129142
FachzeitschriftJournal of environmental management
Jahrgang404
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 15 Apr. 2026
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

PubMed 41861550
ORCID /0000-0001-8091-6075/work/225495774

Schlagworte

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete

Schlagwörter

  • assisted migration, climate-adapted management, Europe, forest productivity, modelling, tree species selection