Correlations in the bond-future market
Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review
Contributors
Abstract
We analyse the time series of overnight returns for the BUND and BTP futures exchanged at LIFFE (London). The overnight returns of both assets are mapped onto a one-dimensional symbolic-dynamics random walk: The 'bond walk'. During the considered period (October 1991-January 1994) the BUND-future market opened earlier than the BTP-future one. The crosscorrelations between the two bond walks, as well as estimates of the conditional probability, show that they are not independent; however each walk can be modelled by means of a trinomial probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulations cofirm that it is necessary to take into account the bivariate dependence in order to properly reproduce the statistical properties of the real-world data. Various investment strategies have been devised to exploit the "prior" information obtained by the aforementioned analysis. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Details
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 90-97 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications |
| Volume | 269 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Jul 1999 |
| Peer-reviewed | Yes |
External IDs
| Scopus | 0032669106 |
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Keywords
Keywords
- Complex systems, Financial markets, Random walk