Correlations in the bond-future market

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

We analyse the time series of overnight returns for the BUND and BTP futures exchanged at LIFFE (London). The overnight returns of both assets are mapped onto a one-dimensional symbolic-dynamics random walk: The 'bond walk'. During the considered period (October 1991-January 1994) the BUND-future market opened earlier than the BTP-future one. The crosscorrelations between the two bond walks, as well as estimates of the conditional probability, show that they are not independent; however each walk can be modelled by means of a trinomial probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulations cofirm that it is necessary to take into account the bivariate dependence in order to properly reproduce the statistical properties of the real-world data. Various investment strategies have been devised to exploit the "prior" information obtained by the aforementioned analysis. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)90-97
Number of pages8
JournalPhysica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Volume269
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 1999
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

Scopus 0032669106

Keywords

Keywords

  • Complex systems, Financial markets, Random walk