Correlations in the bond-future market
Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Forschungsartikel › Beigetragen › Begutachtung
Beitragende
Abstract
We analyse the time series of overnight returns for the BUND and BTP futures exchanged at LIFFE (London). The overnight returns of both assets are mapped onto a one-dimensional symbolic-dynamics random walk: The 'bond walk'. During the considered period (October 1991-January 1994) the BUND-future market opened earlier than the BTP-future one. The crosscorrelations between the two bond walks, as well as estimates of the conditional probability, show that they are not independent; however each walk can be modelled by means of a trinomial probability distribution. Monte Carlo simulations cofirm that it is necessary to take into account the bivariate dependence in order to properly reproduce the statistical properties of the real-world data. Various investment strategies have been devised to exploit the "prior" information obtained by the aforementioned analysis. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Details
Originalsprache | Englisch |
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Seiten (von - bis) | 90-97 |
Seitenumfang | 8 |
Fachzeitschrift | Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications |
Jahrgang | 269 |
Ausgabenummer | 1 |
Publikationsstatus | Veröffentlicht - 1 Juli 1999 |
Peer-Review-Status | Ja |
Externe IDs
Scopus | 0032669106 |
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Schlagworte
Schlagwörter
- Complex systems, Financial markets, Random walk