Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century

Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review

Contributors

  • Marc Grünig - , Technical University of Munich, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, University of Basel (Author)
  • Werner Rammer - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • Cornelius Senf - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • Katharina Albrich - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland, University of Eastern Finland (Author)
  • Frédéric André - , Université catholique de Louvain (Author)
  • Andrey L.D. Augustynczik - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Author)
  • Martin Baumann - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • Friedrich J. Bohn - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing Berlin (Author)
  • Meike Bouwman - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Harald Bugmann - , ETH Zurich (Author)
  • Alessio Collalti - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) (Author)
  • Irina Cristal - , University of Girona, Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Author)
  • Daniela Dalmonech - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) (Author)
  • Francois De Coligny - , Botany and Modelling of Plant Architecture and Vegetation (Author)
  • Laura Dobor - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Author)
  • Christina Dollinger - , Technical University of Munich (Author)
  • Josep Maria Espelta - , CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (Author)
  • David I. Forrester - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Author)
  • Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo - , Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Author)
  • José Ramón González-Olabarria - , Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Author)
  • Ulrike Hiltner - , ETH Zurich (Author)
  • Tomáš Hlásny - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Author)
  • Juha Honkaniemi - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Author)
  • Nica Huber - , ETH Zurich, Swiss Ornithological Institute (Author)
  • Mathieu Jonard - , Université catholique de Louvain (Author)
  • Anna Maria Jönsson - , Lund University (Author)
  • Georges Kunstler - , Université Grenoble Alpes (Author)
  • Fredrik Lagergren - , Lund University (Author)
  • Marcus Lindner - , European Forest Institute (Author)
  • Marco Mina - , EURAC Research (Author)
  • Christine Moos - , Bern University of Applied Sciences (Author)
  • Xavier Morin - , University of Montpellier (Author)
  • Bart Muys - , KU Leuven (Author)
  • Gert Jan Nabuurs - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Mats Nieberg - , European Forest Institute, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Marco Patacca - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Mikko Peltoniemi - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Author)
  • Christopher P.O. Reyer - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Mart Jan Schelhaas - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Ilié Storms - , KU Leuven (Author)
  • Dominik Thom - , Chair of Silviculture, University of Vermont (Author)
  • Maude Toïgo - , Université de Bordeaux, Bordeaux Sciences Agro (Author)
  • Rupert Seidl - , Technical University of Munich (Author)

Abstract

Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms cause large pulses of tree mortality. climate change amplifies these forest disturbances, yet their future magnitude and extent remain uncertain. here, we simulated future forest disturbance regimes at 100-meter resolution across Europe using a deep learning–based simulation framework. Our results show that forest disturbances will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, with disturbed areas more than doubling relative to the recent past under an unabated continuation of climate change. Wildfires are the main agent driving future disturbance change. changing disturbances result in an increase in young forests, substantially altering Europe’s forest demography. Because of their profound implications for forest carbon storage and the habitat value of forest ecosystems, disturbances should be a priority of forest policy and management.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number1003
JournalScience
Volume391
Issue number6789
Publication statusPublished - 5 Mar 2026
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

PubMed 41785360
ORCID /0000-0001-8091-6075/work/225495783

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

ASJC Scopus subject areas