Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century

Publikation: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Forschungsartikel › Beigetragen › Begutachtung

Beitragende

  • Marc Grünig - , Technische Universität München, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Universität Basel (Autor:in)
  • Werner Rammer - , Technische Universität München (Autor:in)
  • Cornelius Senf - , Technische Universität München (Autor:in)
  • Katharina Albrich - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland, University of Eastern Finland (Autor:in)
  • Frédéric André - , Université catholique de Louvain (Autor:in)
  • Andrey L.D. Augustynczik - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Autor:in)
  • Martin Baumann - , Technische Universität München (Autor:in)
  • Friedrich J. Bohn - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ), Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM) (Autor:in)
  • Meike Bouwman - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Autor:in)
  • Harald Bugmann - , ETH Zürich (Autor:in)
  • Alessio Collalti - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) (Autor:in)
  • Irina Cristal - , University of Girona, Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Autor:in)
  • Daniela Dalmonech - , National Research Council of Italy (CNR), National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) (Autor:in)
  • Francois De Coligny - , BotAnique et Modélisation de l’Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (Autor:in)
  • Laura Dobor - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Autor:in)
  • Christina Dollinger - , Technische Universität München (Autor:in)
  • Josep Maria Espelta - , CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (Autor:in)
  • David I. Forrester - , Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) (Autor:in)
  • Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo - , Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Autor:in)
  • José Ramón González-Olabarria - , Forest Sciences and Technology Centre of Catalonia (Autor:in)
  • Ulrike Hiltner - , ETH Zürich (Autor:in)
  • Tomáš Hlásny - , Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (Autor:in)
  • Juha Honkaniemi - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Autor:in)
  • Nica Huber - , ETH Zürich, Swiss Ornithological Institute (Autor:in)
  • Mathieu Jonard - , Université catholique de Louvain (Autor:in)
  • Anna Maria Jönsson - , Lund University (Autor:in)
  • Georges Kunstler - , Université Grenoble Alpes (Autor:in)
  • Fredrik Lagergren - , Lund University (Autor:in)
  • Marcus Lindner - , European Forest Institute (Autor:in)
  • Marco Mina - , EURAC Research (Autor:in)
  • Christine Moos - , Berner Fachhochschule (Autor:in)
  • Xavier Morin - , Université de Montpellier (Autor:in)
  • Bart Muys - , KU Leuven (Autor:in)
  • Gert Jan Nabuurs - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Autor:in)
  • Mats Nieberg - , European Forest Institute, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Autor:in)
  • Marco Patacca - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Autor:in)
  • Mikko Peltoniemi - , Luke Natural Resources Institute Finland (Autor:in)
  • Christopher P.O. Reyer - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Autor:in)
  • Mart Jan Schelhaas - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Autor:in)
  • Ilié Storms - , KU Leuven (Autor:in)
  • Dominik Thom - , Professur für Waldbau, University of Vermont (Autor:in)
  • Maude Toïgo - , Université de Bordeaux, Bordeaux Sciences Agro (Autor:in)
  • Rupert Seidl - , Technische Universität München (Autor:in)

Abstract

Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms cause large pulses of tree mortality. climate change amplifies these forest disturbances, yet their future magnitude and extent remain uncertain. here, we simulated future forest disturbance regimes at 100-meter resolution across Europe using a deep learning–based simulation framework. Our results show that forest disturbances will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, with disturbed areas more than doubling relative to the recent past under an unabated continuation of climate change. Wildfires are the main agent driving future disturbance change. changing disturbances result in an increase in young forests, substantially altering Europe’s forest demography. Because of their profound implications for forest carbon storage and the habitat value of forest ecosystems, disturbances should be a priority of forest policy and management.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer1003
FachzeitschriftScience
Jahrgang391
Ausgabenummer6789
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 5 März 2026
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

PubMed 41785360
ORCID /0000-0001-8091-6075/work/225495783

Schlagworte

Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung

ASJC Scopus Sachgebiete