Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Aglaé Jézéquel - , Ecole Normale Superieure, École des Ponts ParisTech (Author)
  • Ana Bastos - , Leipzig University (Author)
  • Davide Faranda - , Ecole Normale Superieure, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, London Mathematical Laboratory (Author)
  • Joyce Kimutai - , Imperial College London, Kenya Meteorological Department (Author)
  • Natacha Le Grix - , University of Bern (Author)
  • Anna M. Wilson - , University of California at San Diego (Author)
  • Samuel Rufat - , Ecole Polytechnique, French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) (Author)
  • Theodore G. Shepherd - , University of Reading, Jülich Research Centre (Author)
  • Rupert F. Stuart-Smith - , University of Oxford (Author)
  • Anne F. Van Loon - , Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) (Author)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Fabio D’Andrea - , Ecole Normale Superieure (Author)
  • Flavio Lehner - , Cornell University, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Polar Bears International (PBI) (Author)
  • Elisabeth A. Lloyd - , Indiana University Bloomington (Author)
  • Julia Moemken - , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Alexandre M. Ramos - , Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Author)
  • Sebastian Sippel - , Leipzig University (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Chair of Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)

Abstract

As extreme event attribution (EEA) matures, explaining the impacts of extreme events has risen to be a key focus for attribution scientists. Studies of this type usually assess the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed impacts. Other scientific communities have developed tools to assess how human activities influence impacts of extreme weather events on ecosystems and societies. For example, the disaster risk reduction (DRR) community analyses how the structure of human societies affects exposure, vulnerability, and ultimately the impacts of extreme weather events, with less attention to the role of anthropogenic climate change. In this perspective, we argue that adapting current practice in EEA to also consider other causal factors in attribution of extreme weather impacts would provide richer and more comprehensive insight into the causes of disasters. To this end, we propose a framework for EEA that would generate a more complete picture of human influences on impacts and bridge the gap between the EEA and DRR communities. We provide illustrations for five case studies: the 2021-2022 Kenyan drought; the 2013-2015 marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific; the 2017 forest fires in Portugal; Acqua Alta (flooding) events in Venice and evaluation of the efficiency of the Experimental Electromechanical Module, an ensemble of mobile barriers that can be activated to mitigate the influx of seawater in the city; and California droughts and the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations system as an adaptation strategy.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number042003
JournalEnvironmental Research: Climate
Volume3
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2024
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321862

Keywords

Keywords

  • attribution, climate change, exposure, extreme event, vulnerability