Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftÜbersichtsartikel (Review)BeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Aglaé Jézéquel - , Ecole Normale Superieure, École des Ponts ParisTech (Autor:in)
  • Ana Bastos - , Universität Leipzig (Autor:in)
  • Davide Faranda - , Ecole Normale Superieure, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, London Mathematical Laboratory (Autor:in)
  • Joyce Kimutai - , Imperial College London, Kenya Meteorological Department (Autor:in)
  • Natacha Le Grix - , Universität Bern (Autor:in)
  • Anna M. Wilson - , University of California at San Diego (Autor:in)
  • Samuel Rufat - , Ecole Polytechnique, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) (Autor:in)
  • Theodore G. Shepherd - , University of Reading, Forschungszentrum Jülich (Autor:in)
  • Rupert F. Stuart-Smith - , University of Oxford (Autor:in)
  • Anne F. Van Loon - , Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU) (Autor:in)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)
  • Fabio D’Andrea - , Ecole Normale Superieure (Autor:in)
  • Flavio Lehner - , Cornell University, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Polar Bears International (PBI) (Autor:in)
  • Elisabeth A. Lloyd - , Indiana University Bloomington (Autor:in)
  • Julia Moemken - , Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (Autor:in)
  • Alexandre M. Ramos - , Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (Autor:in)
  • Sebastian Sippel - , Universität Leipzig (Autor:in)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Professur Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences (gB/UFZ), Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) (Autor:in)

Abstract

As extreme event attribution (EEA) matures, explaining the impacts of extreme events has risen to be a key focus for attribution scientists. Studies of this type usually assess the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed impacts. Other scientific communities have developed tools to assess how human activities influence impacts of extreme weather events on ecosystems and societies. For example, the disaster risk reduction (DRR) community analyses how the structure of human societies affects exposure, vulnerability, and ultimately the impacts of extreme weather events, with less attention to the role of anthropogenic climate change. In this perspective, we argue that adapting current practice in EEA to also consider other causal factors in attribution of extreme weather impacts would provide richer and more comprehensive insight into the causes of disasters. To this end, we propose a framework for EEA that would generate a more complete picture of human influences on impacts and bridge the gap between the EEA and DRR communities. We provide illustrations for five case studies: the 2021-2022 Kenyan drought; the 2013-2015 marine heatwave in the northeast Pacific; the 2017 forest fires in Portugal; Acqua Alta (flooding) events in Venice and evaluation of the efficiency of the Experimental Electromechanical Module, an ensemble of mobile barriers that can be activated to mitigate the influx of seawater in the city; and California droughts and the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations system as an adaptation strategy.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Aufsatznummer042003
FachzeitschriftEnvironmental Research: Climate
Jahrgang3
Ausgabenummer4
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 1 Dez. 2024
Peer-Review-StatusJa

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/197321862

Schlagworte

Schlagwörter

  • attribution, climate change, exposure, extreme event, vulnerability