A three-stage framework for motorway travel time prediction

Research output: Contribution to book/Conference proceedings/Anthology/ReportConference contributionContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Zhitao Xiong - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • David Rey - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Tuo Mao - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Haiyang Liu - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • Vinayak V. Dixit - , University of New South Wales (Author)
  • S. Travis Waller - , University of New South Wales (Author)

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for short-term travel time prediction in a motorway with a three-stage architecture: traffic flow forecasting, traffic flow generation and travel time extraction. Traffic flow forecasting reads the historical traffic data and utilizes a forecasting model - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to predict short-term traffic flow. The traffic flow generation utilizes the Cell Transmission Model (CTM) to generate outgoing flow of a road of interest based on the predicted incoming flow from ARIMA. Predicted short term travel times can then be obtained through N-Curve Analysis. Compared to most studies, this paper presents a historical data-driven framework for travel time prediction that can be trained based on specific profiles of routes and cities. The motorway M4 in Sydney, Australia was used to test this framework. It is shown that the predicted travel times can be used to anticipate congestion episodes at the network level.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2014 17th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2014
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages816-821
Number of pages6
ISBN (electronic)9781479960781
Publication statusPublished - 14 Nov 2014
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

Publication series

SeriesInternational Conference on Intelligent Transportation (ITSC)
ISSN2153-0009

Conference

Title2014 17th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems
Abbreviated titleITSC 2014
Conference number17
Duration8 - 11 October 2014
CityQingdao
CountryChina

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-2939-2090/work/141543862