A three-stage framework for motorway travel time prediction

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Konferenzbericht/Sammelband/GutachtenBeitrag in KonferenzbandBeigetragenBegutachtung

Beitragende

  • Zhitao Xiong - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • David Rey - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • Tuo Mao - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • Haiyang Liu - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • Vinayak V. Dixit - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)
  • S. Travis Waller - , University of New South Wales (Autor:in)

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for short-term travel time prediction in a motorway with a three-stage architecture: traffic flow forecasting, traffic flow generation and travel time extraction. Traffic flow forecasting reads the historical traffic data and utilizes a forecasting model - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to predict short-term traffic flow. The traffic flow generation utilizes the Cell Transmission Model (CTM) to generate outgoing flow of a road of interest based on the predicted incoming flow from ARIMA. Predicted short term travel times can then be obtained through N-Curve Analysis. Compared to most studies, this paper presents a historical data-driven framework for travel time prediction that can be trained based on specific profiles of routes and cities. The motorway M4 in Sydney, Australia was used to test this framework. It is shown that the predicted travel times can be used to anticipate congestion episodes at the network level.

Details

OriginalspracheEnglisch
Titel2014 17th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2014
Herausgeber (Verlag)Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Seiten816-821
Seitenumfang6
ISBN (elektronisch)9781479960781
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 14 Nov. 2014
Peer-Review-StatusJa
Extern publiziertJa

Publikationsreihe

ReiheInternational Conference on Intelligent Transportation (ITSC)
ISSN2153-0009

Konferenz

Titel2014 17th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems
KurztitelITSC 2014
Veranstaltungsnummer17
Dauer8 - 11 Oktober 2014
StadtQingdao
LandChina

Externe IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-2939-2090/work/141543862

Schlagworte