Warming and vegetation greening drive recent surge in flash droughts

Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review

Contributors

  • Jun Li - , Peking University, South China University of Technology (Author)
  • Yao Zhang - , Peking University (Author)
  • Emanuele Bevacqua - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Shijie Jiang - , Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, European Laboratory for Learning and Intelligent Systems Unit Jena (Author)
  • Xing Yuan - , CAS - Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Author)
  • Sha Zhou - , Beijing Normal University (Author)
  • Jinghao Qiu - , Peking University (Author)
  • Zhao Li Wang - , South China University of Technology, Guangdong Provincial Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy (Author)
  • Jakob Zscheischler - , Chair of Data Analytics in Hydro Sciences, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Kaicun Wang - , Peking University (Author)
  • Shilong Piao - , Peking University (Author)

Abstract

Flash droughts have become more frequent, yet their underlying mechanisms of such changes remain unclear. Using an explainable artificial intelligence–based clustering framework with reanalysis products and Earth system models, we show that the major driving mechanisms of global flash droughts have shifted from precipitation dominance to a compound effect of temperature, transpiration, and precipitation. This transition drives a surge in flash droughts over the past decade, with more rapidly developing, severe, and enduring soil droughts. Anthropogenic warming and vegetation greening are the main drivers of the observed surge. The transition, which has emerged beyond natural climate variability since 2017 and is mainly detected in Eurasia, Amazon, and Africa, exposes ~650 million people under threat and reduces gross primary productivity by 0.15 ± 0.1 petagrams of carbon per year. Our results demonstrate that biosphere and atmosphere responses to anthropogenic forcing have altered flash drought drivers, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted mitigation strategies.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article numbereaea8452
JournalScience advances
Volume12
Issue number22
Publication statusPublished - 29 May 2026
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

PubMed 42202027
ORCID /0000-0001-6045-1629/work/226837859

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

ASJC Scopus subject areas