Utilizing uncertainty information in remaining useful life estimation via Bayesian neural networks and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review
Contributors
Abstract
The estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery is a major task in prognostics and health management (PHM). Recently, prognostic performance has been enhanced significantly due to the application of deep learning (DL) models. However, only few authors assess the uncertainty of the applied DL models and therefore can state how certain the model is about the predicted RUL values. This is especially critical in applications, in which unplanned failures lead to high costs or even to human harm. Therefore, the determination of the uncertainty associated with the RUL estimate is important for the applicability of DL models in practice. In this article, Bayesian DL models, that naturally quantify uncertainty, were applied to the task of RUL estimation of simulated turbo fan engines. Inference is carried out via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and variational inference (VI). The experiments show, that the performance of Bayesian DL models is similar and in many cases even beneficial compared to classical DL models. Furthermore, an approach for utilizing the uncertainty information generated by Bayesian DL models is presented. The approach was applied and showed how to further enhance the predictive performance.
Details
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 799 - 807 |
Journal | Journal of manufacturing systems : an official journal of the Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME) |
Volume | 61 |
Publication status | Published - 7 Dec 2020 |
Peer-reviewed | Yes |
Externally published | Yes |
External IDs
Scopus | 85097471434 |
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Keywords
Sustainable Development Goals
Keywords
- Prognostics and health management, Bayesian neural networks, Remaining useful life, Uncertainty quantification, C-MAPSS