Using incomplete floristic monitoring data from habitat mapping programmes to detect species trends

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Helge Bruelheide - , Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig (Author)
  • Florian Jansen - , University of Rostock (Author)
  • Ute Jandt - , Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig (Author)
  • Markus Bernhardt-Römermann - , Friedrich Schiller University Jena (Author)
  • Aletta Bonn - , German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Friedrich Schiller University Jena (Author)
  • Diana Bowler - , German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Friedrich Schiller University Jena (Author)
  • Jürgen Dengler - , German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig, Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW), University of Bayreuth (Author)
  • David Eichenberg - , German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig (Author)
  • Volker Grescho - , German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • David Harter - , Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (Author)
  • Matthias Jugelt - , State Agency for Agriculture (Author)
  • Simon Kellner - , State Agency for Agriculture (Author)
  • Martin Ludwig - , Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (Author)
  • Karsten Wesche - , International Institute Zittau, Chair of Biodiversity of Higher Plants, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle—Jena—Leipzig, Senckenberg Museum of Natural History Görlitz, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung (Author)
  • Silke Lütt - , State Agency for Agriculture (Author)

Abstract

Aim: The loss of biodiversity has raised serious concerns about the entailing losses of ecosystem services. Here, we explore the potential of repeated habitat mapping data to identify floristic changes over time. Using one German federal state as a case study, we assessed floristic changes between the 1980s and 2010s. These habitat data have great potential for analysis because of their high spatial coverage while also posing methodological challenges such as incomplete observation data. We developed a modelling approach that accounts for incomplete observations and explored the ability to detect temporal trends. Location: The Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein (Germany). Methods: We compiled plant species lists from the earliest (1980s) and most recent (2010s) habitat mapping survey and aligned differing habitat definitions across mapping campaigns. A total of 5,503 mapped polygons, each with a list of species records, intersected the two surveys. We accounted for underrecorded species by assigning occurrence probabilities, based on species co-occurrence information across all surveys, using Beals' index and tested the robustness of this approach by simulation experiments. For those species with significant increases and decreases in occurrence probability, we linked these trends to the species' functional characteristics. Results: We found a systematic loss of species that are moderately threatened. Species that indicate low nitrogen supply and high soil moisture declined, suggesting a shift towards a more eutrophic and drier landscape. Importantly, assessing specific plant traits associated with losses, we also detected a decrease in species with reddish and blueish flowers and species providing nectar, pointing to a decrease of insect-pollinated taxa. Main conclusions: The identified changes raise concerns that plant biodiversity has fundamentally changed over the last three decades, with concomitant consequences for ecosystem services, especially pollination. Given the general lack of historical standardized data, our approach for trend analyses using incomplete observation data may be widely applicable to assess long-term biodiversity change.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)782-794
Number of pages13
Journal Diversity & distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity
Volume26
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2020
Peer-reviewedYes

Keywords

Keywords

  • Beals' index, biodiversity change, biotope mapping, Ellenberg indicator value, flower colour, Germany, insect-pollinated plants, nectar supply, plant species, resurvey