The ISIMIP groundwater sector: a framework for ensemble modeling of global change impacts on groundwater

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Robert Reinecke - , Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (Author)
  • Tanjila Akhter - , Michigan State University (Author)
  • Annemarie Bäthge - , Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (Author)
  • Ricarda Dietrich - , Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (Author)
  • Sebastian Gnann - , University of Freiburg (Author)
  • Simon N. Gosling - , University of Nottingham (Author)
  • Danielle Grogan - , University of New Hampshire (Author)
  • Andreas Hartmann - , Chair of Groundwater Systems (Author)
  • Stefan Kollet - , Jülich Research Centre (Author)
  • Rohini Kumar - , Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (Author)
  • Richard Lammers - , University of New Hampshire (Author)
  • Sida Liu - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Yan Liu - , Jülich Research Centre (Author)
  • Nils Moosdorf - , Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine Research, Kiel University (Author)
  • Bibi Naz - , Jülich Research Centre (Author)
  • Sara Nazari - , Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine Research (Author)
  • Chibuike Orazulike - , Chair of Groundwater Systems (Author)
  • Yadu Pokhrel - , Michigan State University (Author)
  • Jacob Schewe - , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Author)
  • Mikhail Smilovic - , International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, ETH Zurich (Author)
  • Maryna Strokal - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)
  • Wim Thiery - , Vrije Universiteit Brussel (Author)
  • Yoshihide Wada - , King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (Author)
  • Shan Zuidema - , University of New Hampshire (Author)
  • Inge de Graaf - , Wageningen University & Research (WUR) (Author)

Abstract

Groundwater serves as a crucial freshwater resource for people and ecosystems, playing a vital role in adapting to climate change. Yet, its availability and dynamics are affected by climate variations, changes in land use, and abstraction. Despite its importance, our understanding of how global change will influence groundwater in the future remains limited. Multi-model ensembles are powerful tools for impact assessments; compared to single-model studies, they provide a more comprehensive understanding of uncertainties and enhance the robustness of projections by capturing a range of possible outcomes. However, to date, no ensemble of groundwater models has been available to assess the impacts of global change. Here, we present the new Groundwater sector within ISIMIP, which combines multiple global, continental, and regional-scale groundwater models. We describe the rationale for the sector, the sectoral output variables that underpinned the modeling protocol, and showcase current model differences and possible future analysis. Currently, eight models are participating in this sector, ranging from gradient-based groundwater models to specialized karst recharge models, each producing up to 19 out of 23 modeling protocol-defined output variables. To showcase the benefits of a joint sector, we utilize available model outputs of the participating models to show the substantial differences in estimating water table depth (global arithmetic mean 6-127 m) and groundwater recharge (global arithmetic mean 78-228 mm yr−1), which is consistent with recent studies on the uncertainty of groundwater models, but with distinct spatial patterns. We further outline synergies with 13 of the 17 existing ISIMIP sectors and specifically discuss those with the global water and water quality sectors. Finally, this paper outlines a vision for ensemble-based groundwater studies that can contribute to a better understanding of the impacts of climate change, land use change, environmental change, and socio-economic change on the world’s largest accessible freshwater store - groundwater.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)523-542
Number of pages20
JournalGeoscientific model development
Volume19
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 15 Jan 2026
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0003-0407-742X/work/205990360