The Bradford Hill considerations on causality: a counterfactual perspective

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

Abstract

Bradford Hill's considerations published in 1965 had an enormous influence on attempts to separate causal from non-causal explanations of observed associations. These considerations were often applied as a checklist of criteria, although they were by no means intended to be used in this way by Hill himself. Hill, however, avoided defining explicitly what he meant by "causal effect". This paper provides a fresh point of view on Hill's considerations from the perspective of counterfactual causality. I argue that counterfactual arguments strongly contribute to the question of when to apply the Hill considerations. Some of the considerations, however, involve many counterfactuals in a broader causal system, and their heuristic value decreases as the complexity of a system increases; the danger of misapplying them can be high. The impacts of these insights for study design and data analysis are discussed. The key analysis tool to assess the applicability of Hill's considerations is multiple bias modelling (Bayesian methods and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis); these methods should be used much more frequently.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number11
Number of pages9
JournalEmerging themes in epidemiology
Volume2
Publication statusPublished - 3 Nov 2005
Peer-reviewedYes
Externally publishedYes

External IDs

PubMedCentral PMC1291382
Scopus 28444443001
ORCID /0000-0001-7646-8265/work/142232623

Keywords

Keywords

  • Causal Effect, Exposure Level, Causal Conclusion, Bias Parameter, Substantive Theory

Library keywords