Synchronization in epidemic growth and the impossibility of selective containment
Research output: Contribution to journal › Research article › Contributed › peer-review
Contributors
Abstract
Containment, aiming to prevent the epidemic stage of community-spreading altogether, and mitigation, aiming to merely 'flatten the curve' of a wide-ranged outbreak, constitute two qualitatively different approaches to combating an epidemic through non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we study a simple model of epidemic dynamics separating the population into two groups, namely a low-risk group and a high-risk group, for which different strategies are pursued. Due to synchronization effects, we find that maintaining a slower epidemic growth behaviour for the high-risk group is unstable against any finite coupling between the two groups. More precisely, the density of infected individuals in the two groups qualitatively evolves very similarly, apart from a small time delay and an overall scaling factor quantifying the coupling between the groups. Hence, selective containment of the epidemic in a targeted (high-risk) group is practically impossible whenever the surrounding society implements a mitigated community-spreading. We relate our general findings to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Details
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 467-473 |
Number of pages | 7 |
Journal | Mathematical medicine and biology |
Volume | 38 |
Issue number | 4 |
Publication status | Published - 1 Dec 2021 |
Peer-reviewed | Yes |