In this study, we investigate the geothermal potential of the shallow subsurface in Dresden, Germany. The analysis considers the status quo scenario in which accumulated heat can be recycled. Installing all possible geothermal systems based on the available space, this heat could supply Dresden's residents for 3 years with energy for space heating. However, a fair CO 2 price would have to be implemented to improve economic value. Next, a near-future scenario is studied, in which accumulated heat has been recycled and, considering all technical constraints, the annual heat input provides a sustainable potential that can provide up to 4.5% of annual heating demands (HDs). However, there is a very high spatial variability that is studied in regard to its socio-economic implications. Finally, two far-future scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) are studied to understand the effect of climate change on the suitability of geothermal systems. Depending on the scenario and circumstances, up to 82% of the city's climate neutrality targets might be reached. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban heat spreading above and below ground'.