Statistical methods for spatial cluster detection in childhood cancer incidence: A simulation study

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Contributors

  • Michael M. Schündeln - , University of Duisburg-Essen (Author)
  • Toni Lange - , Center for Evidence-Based Healthcare (Author)
  • Maximilian Knoll - , German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) (Author)
  • Claudia Spix - , Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (Author)
  • Hermann Brenner - , German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) (Author)
  • Kayvan Bozorgmehr - , Bielefeld University (Author)
  • Christian Stock - , German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg University  (Author)

Abstract

Background and objective: The potential existence of spatial clusters in childhood cancer incidence is a debated topic. Identification of such clusters may help to better understand etiology and develop preventive strategies. We evaluated widely used statistical approaches to cluster detection in this context. Methods: Incidence of newly diagnosed childhood cancer (140/1,000,000 children under 15 years) and nephroblastoma (7/1,000,000) was simulated. Clusters of defined size (1–50) were randomly assembled on the district level in Germany. Each cluster was simulated with different relative risk levels (1–100). For each combination 2000 iterations were done. Simulated data was then analyzed by three local clustering tests: Besag-Newell method, spatial scan statistic and Bayesian Besag-York-Mollié with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation approach. The operating characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, power and correct classification) of all three methods were systematically described. Results: Performance varied considerably within and between methods, depending on the simulated setting. Sensitivity of all methods was positively associated with increasing size, incidence and RR of the high-risk area. Besag-York-Mollié showed highest specificity for minimally increased RR in most scenarios. The performance of all methods was lower in the nephroblastoma scenario compared with the scenario including all cancer cases. Conclusion: This study illustrates the challenge to make reliable inferences on the existence of spatial clusters based on single statistical approaches in childhood cancer. Application of multiple methods, ideally with known operating characteristics, and a critical discussion of the joint evidence seems recommendable when aiming to identify high-risk clusters.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article number101873
JournalCancer epidemiology : the international journal of cancer epidemiology, detection and prevention
Volume70
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2021
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

PubMed 33360605
ORCID /0000-0002-8671-7496/work/152545152

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Keywords

  • Bayesian, Besag York Mollié, Besag-Newell, Childhood cancer, Spatial cluster, Spatial scan statistic