Stagewise crop yield prediction with multisource functional indices

Research output: Contribution to journalResearch articleContributedpeer-review

Abstract

Index insurance design involves integrating weather data, soil moisture, phenology information, and satellite imagery, which presents challenges in data fusion. This article addresses the modelling of multisource functional indices of varying lengths by constructing a stagewise ensemble of sequential models. The implemented methods, including nonparametric regression and deep learning models, aim to improve crop yield prediction by systematically capturing spatiotemporal dependence across indices of different temporal spans. Results from an applied case study demonstrate both the feasibility and practical value of stagewise modelling, highlighting its potential to reduce basis risk and improve the hedging effectiveness of index insurance contracts.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere70043
JournalCanadian Journal of Statistics
Volume54
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2026
Peer-reviewedYes

External IDs

ORCID /0000-0002-8909-4861/work/215833786

Keywords

Keywords

  • Functional data, index insurance, spatiotemporal modelling, stagewise