Sound Statistical Model Checking for Probabilities and Expected Rewards

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Contributors

Abstract

Statistical model checking estimates probabilities and expectations of interest in probabilistic system models by using random simulations. Its results come with statistical guarantees. However, many tools use unsound statistical methods that produce incorrect results more often than they claim. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of tools and their correctness, as well as of sound methods available for estimating probabilities from the literature. For expected rewards, we investigate how to bound the path reward distribution to apply sound statistical methods for bounded distributions, of which we recommend the Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality that has not been used in SMC so far. We prove that even reachability rewards can be bounded in theory, and formalise the concept of limit-PAC procedures for a practical solution. The modes SMC tool implements our methods and recommendations, which we use to experimentally confirm our results.

Details

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems
EditorsArie Gurfinkel, Marijn Heule
PublisherSpringer, Cham
Pages167–190
Number of pages24
ISBN (electronic)978-3-031-90643-5
ISBN (print)978-3-031-90642-8
Publication statusPublished - 2025
Peer-reviewedYes

Publication series

SeriesLecture Notes in Computer Science
Volume15696
ISSN0302-9743

External IDs

Scopus 105004792492

Keywords